‘I was wrong’ about Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, expert James Lavish admits
Here's why Bitcoin could make another ATH in 2026.
Prominent crypto analyst James Lavish has publicly admitted that his previous conviction in Bitcoin's four-year bull-bear cycle was fundamentally flawed. He acknowledged that BTC's underlying market dynamics are undergoing a structural transformation, rendering the traditional halving-driven four-year cycle model insufficient to fully explain current price behavior and market trends.
At the core of Lavish's revised thesis is the recognition that institutional capital flows and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have fundamentally altered the demand-side equation for BTC. The classic four-year cycle theory was largely built on supply-shock assumptions tied to halving events, but the sustained institutional buying channeled through ETFs is disrupting the predictability of those rhythms. Lavish now forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026, suggesting the cycle peak may arrive later and last longer than conventional models have projected.
The admission carries significant implications for market participants. If the four-year cycle framework has effectively been extended or invalidated, investors who anticipated a cycle top by late 2025 may need to reassess their exit strategies. For long-term BTC holders, this represents a bullish signal, pointing to a prolonged upside window. However, short-term traders relying on historical cycle timing face elevated strategy risk. Ultimately, the increasing complexity of Bitcoin's market structure calls for more dynamic, multi-dimensional analytical approaches rather than reliance on any single cyclical model.
Source: AMBCrypto (https://ambcrypto.com/i-was-wrong-about-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-expert-james-lavish-admits/)